At
first glance it might seem that the marriage of war and
money is nonsensical. However, war does seem to improve
economic conditions. In fact, commerce and military conflict
have been linked together for many centuries. In 1828 Webster
defined war as: "A contest between nations or states,
carried on by force, either for defense, or for revenging
insults and redressing wrongs, for the extension of commerce
or acquisition of territory . . ."
Without
commenting at all on the political, ethical, emotional or
moral issues surrounding war, there are economic relationships
that often lead to an improved fiscal climate. Of course
using statistics alone may not reveal factors such as: perceived
uncertainty, expectations and the propensity to spend, or
willingness to invest.
Nevertheless,
it is worth exploring both the obvious and not so obvious
relationships that make the process of war economically
stimulating.
Classic
economic fiscal policy theory tells us government spending
stimulates the economy because it puts more funds into circulation.
Add
to that the multiplier effect-- that is, one new dollar
(less what each person saves) passing from person to person
has an influence of $10 or possibly more. It's the government
that pays for war.
Some
of the expenditures are obvious. It's easy to see the benefit
for manufacturers of wartime equipment and supplies. The
campaign requires vehicles, food, transportation, communications,
ammunition, clothing, gasoline, etc.
However,
some of the fiscally stimulating expenditures are less obvious.
Members of the military assigned to or deployed to a combat
zone receive additional "combat pay" (officially
called "imminent danger pay") which also carries
a tax advantage. Congress and/or the President can designate
combat zones as "Tax Exempt" areas.
Earnings
received while in these combats zone are excluded from taxable
income. Bonuses and "special pays" are also excluded
from taxable income if earned in the same month while in
a combat zone.
In
addition, members of the military in a combat zone are authorized
to deposit up to $10,000 (per year) of their pay and allowances
into a special savings account that pays a guaranteed 10
percent interest per year.
This
program was established during the Vietnam era, and then
phased out at the end of the Vietnam War. It was revived
in 1991 during the Gulf War and still exists today.
This
means that the government spends more for its military labor
in times of war while simultaneously employing the additional
fiscal policy tool of tax reduction and preferential return.
These
policies increase available money to be placed into the
economic structure.
However,
one set of parameters does not represent the entire model.
Fiscal, monetary and psychological issues mix together in
a highly intricate and multifaceted way. Though government
spending supposedly stimulates the economy, governments
have no real income other than through taxation.
Robert
Shapiro of MSNBC reminds us that since democratic governments
are reluctant to ask their citizens to pay much higher taxes
while they're also placing their people in mortal peril,
most large wars also involve changes in monetary arrangements
to finance the conflict.
America's
first national currency and modern bond operation grew out
of the Union's financing schemes for the Civil War. World
War I funding demands transformed the infant Federal Reserve
from a lender of last resort in bank panics into a modern
central bank. The deficit financing of the Vietnam War (and
monetary policies to accommodate it) helped launch the inflation
of the 1970s.
To
try to quantify the magnitude of the war relative to the
entire economy, consider the following relationships.
President
Bush has requested $74.7 billion from congress to finance
the first installment of the war which is $20 billion more
than the $54 billion AOL Time Warner lost in the 1st Quarter
of 2002. Some have estimated the cost of the war will be
more than $300 billion.
According
to the U.S. department of Commerce, Gross Domestic Product
(the output of goods and services produced by labor and
property located in the United States) was $10,586 billion
at the end of 2002.
That
means the estimated expense of the war is approximately
3 percent of GDP.
Money
and war-strange but inextricably bound bedfellows. The etymology
of the word "war" comes from the Old High German
werran to "confuse." At war's end, maybe clarity
will return.